Log 2

 

   The book I read is titled Same as Ever by Morgan Housel. Although I purchased it last semester, I only recently read it for the first time. I chose this book because I am not interested in fiction. Instead, I prefer books that broaden my horizons and offer practical insights that I can apply to my life.

    One quote from the book that particularly resonated with me is by Carl Jung: “Our life is indeed the same as it ever was....The same physiological and psychological processes that have been man's for hundreds of thousands of years still endure.” This statement reflects a timeless perspective on human nature. It emphasizes that despite changes in society, technology, and culture, human behaviors remain fundamentally the same. The core human experience, including our emotions, behaviors, and biological processes, is deeply rooted in history.

    In the introduction, the author uses an ancient-modern contrast, imagining what life was like five hundred years ago. We would find that, despite significant changes in technology and medicine, people still fall prey to greed and fear, just as they do in the current generation. The author also mentions that behaviors that never change are history's most powerful lessons because they preview what to expect in the future.

    What do you think about this sentence? I read it repeatedly and came to understand it better. While unchanging behaviors might lead to shortcomings, such as falling for greed, the sentence emphasizes that examining these enduring human behaviors throughout history can help us predict and understand future events or trends. A significant example is the economic bubble. Analyzing historical market bubbles can help us identify early warning signs of financial instability and implement strategies to prevent future crises. Therefore, while unchanging human behaviors have drawbacks, they also offer valuable insights when viewed from different perspectives.

    Next, I will share insights from two chapters I read last week. First of all, Hanging by a Thread. The author uses his personal story as an example. He and two friends decided to ski at the backside of Squaw Valley, a stretch of mountain about a mile long that separates Squaw from Alpine Meadows ski resort. The author got caught in an avalanche, which was an unforgettable experience for him. Fortunately, the avalanche was small and ended quickly. However, when they went back, his friends wanted to ski the backside again, and the author declined to go with them. Unbeknownst to his friends, their destiny was altered. When the author went to pick up his friends, he couldn’t find them. Eventually, they were found buried under six feet of snow. 

    Small events can change our lives dramatically. No matter how the world looks today, we can’t predict what will happen tomorrow due to unexpected accidents. Just like the author who canceled his friends' invitation—he didn’t know the avalanche would occur or that this cancellation would save his life. Therefore, I think the importance of this chapter is to think carefully before taking action. I learned that when making any decision, we should ponder deeply rather than act rashly without consideration. A wrong decision can have serious consequences.

    One remarkable example of this is the global COVID-19 pandemic. Simple actions like wearing masks, maintaining social distance, and regularly washing hands are small yet effective measures to protect ourselves from infection. Although the symptoms of COVID-19 may resemble those of a common illness, the virus has caused numerous deaths. Because we cannot predict when you might be infected or what the symptoms will be like—whether they will resemble a common illness or lead to severe complications or even death—this uncertainty underscores the importance of taking preventive measures. Therefore, from my perspective, this can serve as a relevant example of the concept discussed in the chapter "Hanging by a Thread."

    Secondly, the title of the second chapter "Risk is What You Don't See." What's your first thought of this title? At the beginning of this chapter, the author condenses into one sentence to explain this. "We are very good at predicting the future, except for the surprises-which tend to be all that matter." The biggest risk is what we don't see coming, thus we don't prepare for it, then the results, the damage will be considerable and serious when it arrive. Some well-known events-COVID-19, 9/11, Pearl Harbor, and the Great Depression. Their common trait is they were surprises, which means we can't predict, we can't imagine when the events will occur. This highlights that we can't predict what will happen tomorrow or even later, and we can't set a plan for the risks. The author offers two recommendations to guide us in a more constructive direction. First, it's more beneficial to anticipate that risks will occur rather than depending on unreliable forecasts. Expectations and forecasts are not the same; expectations are generally more valuable than forecasts. Second, it is crucial to realize that if we only prepare for the risk we can forecast, we will always have no preparation for the risk we didn't predict. Even the smartest planners, through hardly working and imagining the situations that may occur, still end up failing due to unexpected conditions.

    After reading these chapters, I found Same as Ever challenging but deeply rewarding. It’s not an easy read, requiring careful thought and reflection. However, the insights it offers into human behavior and risk management are incredibly valuable. It has expanded my understanding of how to navigate an unpredictable world by recognizing the patterns of the past and applying them to the future. I am looking forward to continuing the book and sharing with you more insights as I read further.

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